Predicting Winners? Nope – Predicting the Oscar Nominations

by / 1 Comment / 606 View / January 9, 2015

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BEST ACTOR– The most interesting best actor race in a while. Most of the year’s films have featured leading men, and it has resulted in a field more crowded than ever.

  1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
  2. Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
  3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
  4. David Oyelowo, “Selma”
  5. Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”

Possible Cotenders: Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”), Ralph Fiennes (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”), Timothy Spall (“Mr. Turner”)

Premature Prediction for the Actual Award:

Winner: Michael Keaton

Chance to Steal: All of my predicted nominees and Steve Carell

                  What originally looked to be a field of boring predictions has now recently been shaken up thanks to the likes of Jake Gyllenhaal, Ralph Fiennes, and Bradley Cooper. Michael Keaton is a lock because of his virtuoso performance in “Birdman,” with Redmayne following closely as the famed Steven Hawking. Benedict Cumberbatch is one of the most loved actors in the world right now, and this fact combined with an emotionally powerful performance and backing by Harvey Weinstein and friends means that he is a lock too. Oyelowo’s performance as Martin Luther King Jr. is enough to be a lock in any other year, but due to the competition and SAG omission, it looks like he is just a promising nomination. Gyllenhaal recently overtook Carell in my book as the disturbed performance nomination of the year because of all the love “Nightcrawler” has recently been getting. Carell’s case is a sad one. An early frontrunner to win, Carell has lost some steam over time just because other names popped up and his performance was universally acclaimed for so long already. He could lose out due to his own premature frontrunner prediction. The Globes and other smaller awards have brought Fiennes and his movie back from the dead. Bradley Cooper is on fire and his performance would’ve warranted a nomination given less competition. He stars in “American Sniper,” which, despite mixed reviews, is really hitting it off with voters – making Bradley Cooper a dangerous man right now. Spall is pretty much out, but there is definitely a voter demographic out there for him. One thing is for sure: of the top six (Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, and Carell) there is definitely going to be a criminal omission come the nominations, unless they decide to announce a tie.

  • James Gray

    Solid predictions. i hope rosamund pike wins